Archive for February, 2008

Ouch: LLNW shares down 80% from 52-week high

Anonymous commenter (in 2006):

The reason Akamai stock has done so well is that they have taken out their competitors. As soon as a new one emerges they either 1) sue them to try to stop their growth (Speedera, Limelight, Digital Island) or 2) buy them to constrain the market [Speedera, Netli, Nine Systems, Red Swoosh].

Today:

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (AP) — Akamai Technologies Inc., which provides technology for the distribution of digital media, said Friday a jury ruled in its favor in a patent suit against Limelight Networks Inc., sending its stock higher in afternoon trading.

Like with Speedera, Akamai may come in now and acquire Limelight at a depressed price (assuming its can get approval).  I own shares in both as I’m bullish on the cdn market (see my earlier post–I guess I was right that Limelight’s a buyout candidate, although this isn’t exactly what I had in mind).  I guess the best I can hope for is a [now generous] $7/share offer (50% premium over current price) which would still net me a 20% return on LLNW and let Akamai take out its main competitor at a very cheap price (about 4x 2008 revenue, while Akamai is currently trading at 7x).  From there I ride Akamai’s dominance for a few more years.

Anyway, this provides a great opportunity for other cdn start-ups, specifically low cost providers such as Panther (which just raised a big $15.75mm round from Index Ventures and Greylock Partners).

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Tales from the Yahoo 10-K…

Today’s filing has some interesting information about Yahoo!’s acquisitions:

–> The acquisitions of Right Media, BlueLithium and Zimbra totaled $1,083mm (at $526mm including its original $40mm investment, $255mm and $302mm, respectively).  This is about 20% less than what was reported by all of the blogs at the time of the announcements.

–> Yahoo! invested $40mm into Right Media in October 2006 for a 20% stake, implying a valuation of $200mm.  Yahoo! then acquired the company in July 2007 at a valuation of $526mm.  That’s a 2.6x return (ignoring any potential preferred or participating prfd cap structures) on Redpoint Ventures‘ $5mm Series B investment in about nine months.  I can only imagine the return on Redpoint’s $7mm Series A investment made way back in 2005.  Stepping outside the 10-K for a sec, Redpoint also co-led (with Benchmark) the Series A investment in Zimbra, and participated in follow-on rounds, resulting in about 25% ownership.  The acquisition by Yahoo! produced a 10x return on their $9mm total investment.  Two monster deals (likely returning well over $150mm total to the fund)…both acquired by the same company…less than four months apart.  Not bad.

–> While no specific revenue numbers for the three acquired companies were given, Yahoo! did provide the combined revenue of the Company and the 2007 acquisitions as if the acquisitions had occurred at the beginning of 2006.  This data showed that Right Media, BlueLithium and Zimbra combined for $97.28mm in 2006 revenue.  So Yahoo! paid 11.1x combined 2006 revenue.  However, all three companies are assumed to be in high growth mode, so it would be much more interesting to see what that multiple would be on combined 2008 revenue.

To get there, I’m going to make the, presumably reasonable, assumption that the three companies average 50% year-over-year growth in 2007 and 2008.  That gets you to combined 2008 revenue of about $220mm*, and implies a 2008 revenue multiple of 4.9x.

If this is the case, not only were the acquisitions great strategic moves, but financially make a lot of sense as well.

* I did a much deeper analysis based on the combined 2006 and 2007 revenue of Yahoo! and three acquisitions.  First, I tried to break out the 2006 revenue numbers.  Based on this article in 2006, the BlueLithium CEO expected to break $100mm in 2007 revenues.  Assuming he was applying typical entrepreneur growth rates, I’d place actual 2006 revenue around $20mm.  Further, based on this article, Zimbra had 2006 revenues south of $20mm…I assumed $15mm.  Knowing the combined number was $97mm, I assumed Right Media had 2006 revenue of $62mm.  Making some further assumptions on the individual companies growth rates, based on their market and 2006 scale, I estimated Right Media, BlueLithium and Zimbra 2008 revenues of $104mm, $70mm and $53mm, respectively. In the end, this process required quite a few more assumptions (and you are more likely to be off the mark with each additional assumption you use) and ultimately landed me combined 2008 revenue of $226mm and a 4.8x multiple.  They’re pretty close, so I just went with the more broad 50% growth assumption.

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Sold at $28.51

From late November through January, I had slowly been building a position in Yahoo!, starting in the mid-20s all the way down to the high teens.  And I was looking forward to continuing buying up shares as it dipped into the mid-teens.  Why?

Here is what I like about the business:

1) Great consumer web services: Yahoo! is the market leader here.  Between its homepage, email, news, finance, sports, maps, messenger, flickr, delicious, go/mobile, etc., Yahoo! has a lot of great properties and still draws the largest audience.  Integration hasn’t been great and they haven’t monetized the properties through advertising as well as you’d hope…but they are still very valuable assets.

2) Great international assets: I didn’t think the market was properly valuing Yahoo! considering its stakes in Yahoo! Japan and Alibaba.

3) Great recent acquisitions: I love the Right Media (online ad exchange), BlueLithium (behavioral targeting ad network) and Zimbra (email) acquisitions.  The first two help solve the core challenge of monetization of its assets through advertising—and Zimbra is another great service, provides some interesting opportunities for integration with Yahoo! Mail, and provides an entry point into the enterprise (and a subscription-based revenue stream to diversify and hedge against the risk of an ad downturn).

However, as a stand-alone business there still needs to be some major restructurings to ultimately realize the full long-term value.  First, cut the fat (much more than the hundreds laid-off in early January) by eliminating non-revenue generating businesses (opposed to broad, blind layoffs across the entire company).  Second, re-create an engineer/developer culture.  Third, once the non-revenue generating products are cut, focus on integration across core products with an emphasis on user experience.  Four, leverage the recent acquisitions and work on accelerating the ad revenue growth across Yahoo! properties, in addition to the publishing partners’ properties.

That said, the announcement by Microsoft provided me a 30% return in less than two months.  As much as I like some of the long-term potential in the business…30% in two months?  Sold at $28.51.

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“What is our place in the universe?”

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“Is it an Internet company or a real company?”

“Is it an Internet company or a real company?”

That little zinger comes via my mom while eating dinner this past weekend with me and my brother.  Nice to know she sees value in what I do.

To her credit, she has been using email for many years, she’s learned to monitor stalk my little sister’s myspace, her addiction to QVC has long been replaced by an addiction to eBay and, I believe, she even has a skype account (non eBay related… if, for that matter, any skype accounts are actually eBay related).

Not sure if that makes the quote better or worse though.

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It’s the hyper-local community stupid!

One of MaxPreps‘ key syndication partners is the newspaper, so I follow the industry pretty closely.  But beyond my professional interest, I have a lot of personal respect for newspapers; from high school sports to local news coverage, newspapers have documented the lives and stories of people in their local communities for many, many years.  My older sister used to work at our local newspaper and, when I was a senior, she created a scrap book of every story, picture, boxscore and interview of my high school football career.  And in every story and every picture, I have a great memory that I can easily look back on.

Newspapers create these little snapshots of life…every day, in every community.

However, newspapers are obviously facing a very difficult challenge now.  Over the past year, I’ve become desensitized to the news of decreasing revenue, layoffs/cuts, lowered circulation and restructurings; another earnings announcement showing year-over-year revenues down 15% no longer provides any shock value to me.  The New York Times had an article earlier in the month (which Marc Andreessen so aptly linked to as “The Titanic reports on the iceberg”) that sums up the challenges facing newspapers:

In just the last few weeks, The San Diego Union-Tribune eliminated more than 100 jobs, one-tenth of its work force. The Chicago Sun-Times began a major round of newsroom layoffs, then put itself up for sale, and publishers in Minneapolis and Philadelphia warned that tough economics could force cuts there.

Not long ago, news like that would have drawn much commentary and hand-wringing in the newspaper business, but in the last few months, reductions have become so routine that they barely make a ripple outside each paper’s hometown. Since mid-2007, major downsizing — often coupled with grim financial reports — has been imposed at The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The San Jose Mercury News, USA Today and many others.

The talk of newspapers’ demise is older than some of the reporters who write about it, but what is happening now is something new, something more serious than anyone has experienced in generations. Last year started badly and ended worse, with shrinking profits and tumbling stock prices, and 2008 is shaping up as more of the same, prompting louder talk about a dark turning point.

The newspaper industry is no doubt at a turning point and is facing a dramatic shift in control, technology and user behavior.

In response to these shifts, newspapers have re-purposed their in-print stories online, they’ve added some “social” tools on their web sites, and have worked together to launch some competitive initiatives to new media (such as the recent ad network launched by four biggies in the industry).  Certainly these joint efforts may help them gain some scale, cut some overhead and have some near-term press releases to comfort investors, but, as Andreessen points out, this has been tried in the past and failed.

The reality is the industry is in a bit of a catch-22.  They have these strong brands that have been built up over the past 30-100+ years.  And their core readers have developed a certain expectation of what those brands stand for.  Plus, newspapers are still cash cows.  Sure, the writing may be on the wall in the long-term, but how do you make any real, dramatic change to a strong brand, with a large core user base, that is making you a ton of money?

Going private is step #1.  Right now, newspapers face quarterly (daily!) pressure from the public markets and are trying to come up with gimmicky near-term solutions to comfort their investors.  In this situation, nothing is being done to create long term value.  If a private company, a newspaper can continue to deliver its current, highly profitable product AND begin focusing on a long term strategy that will enable the newspapers to continue being a leading source for local news and information.

But what is the long-term solution for these established brands?  I don’t think there is a single answer, but I’m a big fan of local hyper-local community building.

The newspaper has long been an important player in the local community.  If I’m Gannett or McClatchy, I take my focus away from national news (people go to CNN for current events, ESPN for pro and college sports news, Digg for top stories per the users, and Google for immediate information access…not the local paper or its respective web site) and start spending my time figuring out inexpensive ways to better serve my local audience with local content.

I’d create (read as “buy”) a centralized platform/technology/database that I can aggregate/collect geo-tagged data from users, bloggers, and other sources.  I then leverage my large network of leading local newspapers, which already has strong brands within the respective local communities, to drive users and credibility. This creates a much better cost structure for the “paper”, and actually helps them better serve their core audience: the local community.

Imagine if Hearst acquired Outside.in (or EveryBlock), Yelp and Fatdoor.*   Suddenly you have geographically filtered news/blog aggregation and local reviews, both feeding geo-tagged news and information into a localized social network for actual, physical communities.  In this scenario, the SF Chronicle (owned by Hearst) is now serving its local audience and connecting neighbors together (as it has done for nearly 150 years), but at a cost structure of a user-generated Internet company vs. a traditional news and publishing company.

While this is just one option, an option with many flaws I’m sure, what I really like about it is that, while it is a dramatic move with respect to a corp dev strategy, it is actually very in-line with the primary value newspapers have provided to their readers for many, many years: little snapshots of life…every day, in every community.

* These start-ups are all very early, they somewhat overlap, and I haven’t spent much time digging too deep into any of them…so please treat them as examples of a hyper-local community building strategy.

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My man Aubrey de Grey on “The Colbert Report”

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Thanks for protecting our kids from the evil television

I didn’t know groups like this still existed…

PTC Calls on “Dexter” Sponsors and CBS Affiliates to Reconsider Support for Mass Murderer ‘Hero’

LOS ANGELES (February 20, 2008) – The Parents Television Council condemned CBS for airing Dexter, a premium cable network series featuring a serial killer as the “hero,” due to its dark, violent themes and inaccurate television rating…

Thank you, PTC, for taking the responsibility for the safety of children away from their parents and and their own common sense, and putting it were it so rightfully belongs: in the hands of an advocacy organization with guidelines that seem to have been established in the ’60s…or at least long before there was this thing called the Internet, where kids can find anything they want (Dexter), and often the things they don’t want (2girls1cup, 4girlsfingerpaint).

This makes me want to go buy stuff from each of the companies that advertise during the show.

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I heart Michael Cera…

I’m liking CBS more and more each day.  First, they add Dexter to the Showtime line-up.  Then, they buy us.  Next, they decide to run old, ad-supported episodes of Dexter on CBS.  And now, they give us more Michael Cera through the CBS Internet television series ClarkandMichael.com.

I can’t get enough of this guy.  Arrested Development is in my top 3 favorite shows ever (Jason Bateman and Cera’s shticks kill me).  And he just keeps coming out with gem after gem:

Clark and Michael
Juno
Superbad (you may notice Clark [Duke] in there during the last party scene as well)
Darling Darling
Drunk History (Volume 1)
Impossible is the Opposite of Possible (his parody of Aleksey Vayner’s infamous video resume titled “Impossible is Nothing“)
Arrested Development

It’s really become quite the man crush.

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It’s my biggest dream

A friend of mine at work told me this story that, for some reason, I find very inspiring:

I was at the mall the other day and I saw this mother getting angry with her young son because he kept trying to climb up and ride the rubber covered handrail on the escalator.  Every time the boy started to climb up, the mother would pull him back down.  After several back-and-forths you could tell that the mom was fed up, and she sternly grabbed him and said, “Stop it!”

The boy, who was completely crushed, looked up at his mom with the saddest face and said: “But mom, it’s my biggest dream!”

It was his biggest dream.  My friend’s story ended there, so I don’t know if the boy was ultimately able to live out his dream or not.  But there’s something about his response in the context of the situation that is at the same time cute and inspiring.  He just wanted to ride the handrail, yet he was approaching it with so much passion.  I love it.

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